Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (19 September – 2 October 2022)

Issued: 16 September 2022
First forecast week: 19 September – 25 September
Second forecast week: 26 September – 2 October

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

Wetter conditions are predicted over most of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (19 September – 2 October).

Drier conditions are predicted over parts of northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (19 – 25 September). These drier conditions are predicted to spread, covering much of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (26 September – 2 October).

For temperature, cooler than usual temperature is predicted over parts of the central Maritime Continent in Week 1 (19 – 25 September). Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over parts of the southeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (19 September – 2 October).

No clear Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present in the first half of September. Models predict no significant MJO activity over the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (19 September – 2 October 2022)

Issued: 16 September 2022
First forecast week: 19 September – 25 September
Second forecast week: 26 September – 2 October

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

Wetter conditions are predicted over most of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (19 September – 2 October).

Drier conditions are predicted over parts of northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (19 – 25 September). These drier conditions are predicted to spread, covering much of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (26 September – 2 October).

For temperature, cooler than usual temperature is predicted over parts of the central Maritime Continent in Week 1 (19 – 25 September). Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over parts of the southeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (19 September – 2 October).

No clear Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present in the first half of September. Models predict no significant MJO activity over the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.