Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern half of the Philippines in Week 1 (4 – 10 September).

Drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (4 – 17 September), with the highest likelihood over the southwestern part of the region.

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (4 – 17 September), in line with the predicted drier conditions. Elsewhere, in Week 1 (4 – 10 September), warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of northern and central Mainland Southeast Asia.

No coherent Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present in the second half of August. Some models predict an MJO signal to develop over the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) or the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during the first week of September. These models then predict the signal to propagate eastwards into the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) by the end of the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern half of the Philippines in Week 1 (4 – 10 September).

Drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (4 – 17 September), with the highest likelihood over the southwestern part of the region.

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (4 – 17 September), in line with the predicted drier conditions. Elsewhere, in Week 1 (4 – 10 September), warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of northern and central Mainland Southeast Asia.

No coherent Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present in the second half of August. Some models predict an MJO signal to develop over the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) or the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during the first week of September. These models then predict the signal to propagate eastwards into the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) by the end of the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.