Category Archives: ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

4th ASEAN COF (21-22 May 2015, Jakarta)

The fourth ASEANCOF meeting was held in the Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics, in Jakarta Indonesia from 21-22 May 2015. It was attended by representatives of the National Meteorological Services from the ASEAN Member countries: Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia. The meeting was also attended by representative from the WMO secretariat and experts of the WMO Global Producing Centers: UK Met Office, NOAA, Bureau of Meteorology Australia, and CPTEC Brazil. The forum was preceded by a week-long training and working session organized by NOAA with support from USAID. WMO provided co-sponsorship and technical support to ASEANCOF-4.

Consensus Outlook for the Southwest Monsoon (JJA 2015) Rainfall and Temperature over Southeast Asia

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) season in 2015, there is strongly enhanced probability for below normal rainfall over the southern part of the Maritime Continent and the eastern margins of mainland Southeast Asia. Over the remainder of mainland Southeast Asia there are slightly enhanced probabilities for normal to below normal rainfall, while over the Philippines there are slightly enhanced probabilities for normal to above normal rainfall.

Above normal temperatures are most likely over much of the Southeast Asia region for the Northern Hemisphere summer, with the highest probabilities over the western Maritime Continent and mainland Southeast Asia. Below normal temperatures are slightly favoured over a relatively small area in the south-eastern part of the Maritime Continent.

Acknowledgements

The forum appreciates the participation of the ASEAN Member countries in conveying their national-level forecast. The forum also appreciates the products and expertise made available from the GPCs for this climate outlook forum. The forum thanked the continuous support from the WMO secretariat and also to the USAID for providing sponsorship for this event.

Meeting Documents

ASEAN COF 4 Meeting Report

3rd ASEAN COF (17-18 Nov 2014, Singapore)

The Third ASEAN Regional Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-3) was held on 17-18 November 2014 in Singapore ahead of the December-February (DJF) boreal winter monsoon season. The third day, 19 November 2014, was dedicated for training of ASEAN National Meteorological Services (NMSs) participants in ensemble seasonal prediction systems. ASEANCOF-3 was sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and organised by the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) as host of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC).

Consensus Outlook for the Boreal Winter Monsoon (DJF 2014-2015) Rainfall and Temperature over Southeast Asia

The consensus outlook takes guidance from the dynamical model outputs of the different WMO recognised Global Producing Centres (GPCs) and other institutions, in particular the multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts from WMO Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME) and APEC Climate Centre (APCC). It also considers the prediction skill and associated confidence that can be derived from the models, as well as the seasonal evolution of large-scale circulation features of importance to Southeast Asian climate, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Another key component of the consensus outlook is the national-level forecasts for the different Southeast Asian countries provided by experts from the respective National Meteorological Services (NMSs).

Using the above as a basis, the seasonal outlook for DJF 2014-2015 is as follows:

For the upcoming boreal winter monsoon (December-February, DJF) season, normal to below normal rainfall is favoured over most of the southern and eastern parts of the Maritime Continent. Elsewhere, generally normal to above normal rainfall is favoured.

Above normal temperature conditions are generally favoured over the whole Southeast Asia region for boreal winter monsoon, with higher probabilities of above normal temperature over the central, tropical regions.

Acknowledgements

The Organising Secretariat would like to thank USAid for funding ASEANCOF-3, along with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for their support of this event.

Meeting Documents

ASEAN COF 3 Meeting Report

2nd ASEAN COF (29 May 2014, Singapore)

The second session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-2) was held via video conferencing hosted by the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS), of the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), on 29 May 2014 from 0600 – 0830 UTC. This was held on behalf of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) and attended by representatives from the ASEAN countries of Brunei, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Consensus Outlook for the Southwest Monsoon (JJA 2014) Rainfall and Temperature over Southeast Asia

For the upcoming Southwest Summer Monsoon (June-July-August) season, normal to below normal rainfall is expected over most of the southern parts of Southeast Asia as well as the central and eastern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, generally normal to above normal rainfall can be expected.

Above normal temperature conditions are generally expected over the whole Southeast Asia region for summer monsoon, with higher probabilities of above normal temperature over the southern parts of the region.

Acknowledgements

The Organising Secretariat would like to thank USAid for funding ASEANCOF-3, along with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for their support of this event.

Meeting Documents

2nd ASEAN COF Meeting Report

1st ASEAN COF (3-5 Dec 2013, Singapore)

The first session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-1) was held in Singapore at the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS), a newly established centre of the MSS, from 3-5 December 2013. Representatives from the ASEAN countries of Brunei, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam attended the meeting. In addition, representatives also attended from the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs) namely Beijing Climate Centre (BCC), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), UK Met Office (UKMO) and WMO Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME), as well as the APEC Climate Centre (APCC).

Consensus Outlook for the Northeast Monsoon (DJF 2013-2014) Rainfall and Temperature over Southeast Asia

For the upcoming boreal winter (December-January-February) season, normal to above normal rainfall is expected over most of the southern parts of Southeast Asia. On the other hand, over the northern parts of Southeast Asia, which is a climatologically dry region during the Northern Hemisphere winter season, normal to slightly below normal rainfall can be expected.

Generally, above normal temperature conditions are expected over the whole Southeast Asia region for boreal winter, with enhanced probabilities over the southern parts of the region. Normal to slightly above normal temperature conditions can be expected over northern parts.

Acknowledgements

The Organising Secretariat would like to thank USAid for funding ASEANCOF-3, along with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for their support of this event.

Meeting Documents

Meeting Programme
Final Report
Report on User Requirements