Category Archives: Fortnightly Weather Outlook

Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent and southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (18 – 24 March). Drier conditions are also predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (18 – 31 March).

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the equatorial region in Week 2 (25 – 31 March).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (18 – 31 March). Elsewhere, warmer than usual temperature is predicted over southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (18 – 24 March) and extending to parts of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (25 – 31 March).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was observed over the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) towards the middle of March based on the RMM index. Models predict the signal to reach the Western Pacific (Phase 6) by the start of the forecast period. Thereafter, most models predict the MJO signal to gradually decay as it propagates eastwards, becoming indiscernible over the Western Hemisphere (Phase 8) by Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

For much of the equatorial region, wetter conditions are predicted in Week 1 (4 – 10 March), followed by drier conditions in Week 2 (11 – 17 March).

Elsewhere, drier conditions are predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent and southern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (4 – 17 March). Wetter conditions are predicted over most of the southern and southeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (4 – 17 March).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and most of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (4 – 17 March).

No discernable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present towards the end of February based on the RMM index. Models predict an MJO signal to develop in the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) by the start of the forecast period, propagating through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during Week 1. Most models predict the MJO signal to reach the Western Pacific (Phase 6) during Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Drier conditions are predicted over the northern half of the Maritime Continent and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (19 February – 3 March).

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the central and southeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (19 February – 3 March), with higher likelihood over the southeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (19 – 25 February).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent as well as southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (19 – 25 February). The warmer than usual temperature is predicted to persist over much of the Maritime Continent in Week 2 (26 February – 3 March).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) in the middle of February based on the RMM index. Most models predict the MJO signal to become indiscernible in Week 1 and then remain inactive for the rest of the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (5 – 11 February). In Week 2 (12– 18 February), drier conditions are predicted over parts of central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia.

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the western and central Maritime Continent in Week 2 (12 – 18 February).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and the coastal parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (5 – 18 February).

Cooler than usual temperature is predicted over parts of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (12 – 18 February).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) at the start of February based on the RMM index. Most models predict this MJO signal to remain over the Western Pacific in the first week of the forecast period. While most models agree on the decay of the signal in the second week, the location is uncertain.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the southeastern Maritime Continent during the next fortnight (22 January – 4 February).

Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (22 – 28 January). In Week 2 (29 January – 4 February), drier conditions are predicted over the western Maritime Continent.

Cooler than usual temperature is predicted over much of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (22 – 28 January). Warmer that usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and the southern most parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (22 January – 4 February).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) in mid-January based on the RMM index. Most models predict this MJO signal to continue propagating eastwards through the Maritime Continent (Phase 5) and the Western Pacific (Phase 6) in Week 1. In Week 2, some models predict this signal to further propagate over the Western Pacific (Phase 7), whereas other models predict this signal to weaken and become inactive.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (8 – 21 January).

Drier conditions are predicted over parts of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, as well as the Philippines and the surrounding region in Week 1 (8 – 14 January).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of the northern ASEAN region, as well as over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (8 – 21 January).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) at the start of January. Most models predict this MJO signal to continue propagating eastwards through Phase 3 in Week 1 and then the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

  Drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern Maritime
Continent in Week 1 (25 – 31 December 2023). Drier conditions are also
predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1,
extending to the eastern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (1 – 7
January 2024). Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the western
Maritime continent in Week 1 (25 – 31 December 2023), extending eastwards to
Borneo in Week 2 (1 – 7 January 2024). Warmer than usual temperature is
predicted over most of the Maritime Continent during the next fortnight (25
December 2023 – 7 January 2024). Cooler than usual temperature is predicted
over much of central Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (25 – 31 December
2023). A weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the
Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) at the start of the forecast
period. Most models predict the MJO signal to propagate through the Western
Hemisphere and Africa and reach the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) in Week 1, and then
weaken over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) in Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are
relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For
specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (11 – 17 December), extending eastwards in Week 2 (18 – 24 December). Drier conditions are also predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent and eastern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1.

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the western Maritime continent in Week 1 (11 – 17 December), extending eastwards to Borneo in Week 2 (18 – 24 December).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of the northern ASEAN region in Week 1 (11 – 17 December) and over most of the Maritime Continent during the next fortnight (11 – 24 December).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) at the start of the forecast period. Most models predict this MJO signal to propagate eastwards to reach the Western Pacific (Phase 6) in Week 1, and then weaken over the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) in Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern Malay Peninsula in the next fortnight (27 November – 10 December). Also, wetter conditions are predicted over much of the central and southeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight.

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and eastern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia during the next fortnight (27 November – 10 December).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal has been present over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) since mid-November. Models predict the MJO signal to propagate eastwards, reaching the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) by the start of the forecast period. Most models predict the signal to weaken in Phase 3 during the first week.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

For the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (13 – 26 November), drier conditions are predicted, except over parts of the equatorial region where wetter conditions are predicted.

For the northern ASEAN region in Week 1 (13 – 19 November), wetter conditions are predicted over much of this region. In Week 2 (20 – 26 November), drier conditions are predicted over southern Mainland Southeast Asia.

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent during the next fortnight (13 – 26 November).

No Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present around the start of the forecast period. Most models predict an MJO signal to develop over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) in Week 1 and then propagate to the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.