Category Archives: Regional Weather Outlook for Year 2020

March 13, 2020

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 31 March 2020)

Issued 13 March 2020
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 – 31 March 2020

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

For the second fortnight of March 2020, there is an increased chance of wetter conditions over some parts of the southern Maritime Continent in Week 3, easing in Week 4.

Drier conditions are expected to persist over northern Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia, northern Borneo and the Philippines throughout the fortnight.

For temperature, warmer conditions are expected over most parts of Mainland Southeast Asia for the second fortnight of March 2020. Warmer conditions are also expected over the southern-most parts of the Maritime Continent in Week 4.

A weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently present in the eastern Maritime Continent. While most models predict the MJO to weaken at the start of the forecast period, there is a possibility of the MJO re-emerging over the Indian Ocean towards the end of Week 3.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

February 28, 2020

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1- 15 March 2020)

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 – 15 March 2020)

Issued 28 February 2020
Valid for weeks 1 and 2: 1 – 15 March 2020

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

For the first fortnight of March 2020, there is an increased chance of wetter conditions over northern Viet Nam and most parts of the southern Maritime Continent. These conditions are expected to ease gradually in Week 2. Drier conditions are expected over northern Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, southern parts of Thailand and the Philippines throughout the fortnight.

For temperature, warmer conditions are expected over most parts of Southeast Asia.

Some models predict a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) emerging over the Maritime Continent in the first week of March. This development may contribute to the wetter conditions in the southern Maritime Continent predicted by the models.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

February 14, 2020

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 29 February 2020)

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16- 29 February 2020)

Issued 14 February 2020
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 – 29 February 2020

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

For the second fortnight of February 2020, there is an increased chance of wetter conditions over most of the southern Maritime Continent. These conditions are expected to ease gradually in Week 4.

Drier conditions are expected over northern Sumatra and western coastal Peninsular Malaysia. Drier conditions are also expected over northern parts of Borneo and southern parts of the Philippines.

For temperature, warmer conditions are expected over much of the Maritime Continent and parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 4. Colder conditions may occur in Week 3 over northeastern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia.

There are signs of an Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) emerging in Maritime Continent in the second week of February. However most models predict this MJO to weaken during the start of the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

January 31, 2020

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1- 15 February 2020)

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 – 15 February 2020)

Issued 31 January 2020
Valid for weeks 1 and 2: 1 – 15 February 2020

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

In the first fortnight of February 2020, drier conditions are expected over a broad region covering Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, northern parts of Borneo, and the Philippines. The drier conditions are expected to ease in the west in Week 2. There is an increased chance of wetter conditions over the southeastern part of the Maritime Continent. However, there is less confidence in the spatial extent and intensity of the wetter conditions.

For temperature, warmer conditions are expected over much of the Maritime Continent in the first fortnight. Colder conditions may occur in Week 1 over northeastern parts of the northern ASEAN region.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was in Phase 7 towards the end of January 2020 and has dissipated. There is no consistent signal in the dynamical models for an MJO to develop in the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

January 16, 2020

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16- 31 January 2020)

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 31 January 2020)

Issued 16 January 2020
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 – 31 January 2020

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

In the second fortnight of January 2020, most areas in the ASEAN region, north of the Equator can expect drier-than-usual conditions, except for the western half of the Mekong sub-region where near average rainfall conditions may be expected. The drier conditions could partly be due to the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the fortnight from phase 6 to phases 7 – 8. These MJO phases typically bring drier conditions over the Southeast Asia region.

During the fortnight, most parts of the ASEAN region along and north of the Equator can expect warmer-than-usual conditions. For areas south of the Equator, warmer conditions may develop in Week 4 over southern Sumatra, Java and Lesser Sunda Islands.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

January 2, 2020

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1- 15 January 2020)

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 – 15 January 2020)

Issued 2 January 2020
Valid for weeks 1 and 2: 1 – 15 January 2020

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

In the first fortnight of January 2020, drier than normal conditions are forecast over parts of the central Philippines and southern Viet Nam. Similar drier than normal conditions are forecast over northern Sumatra, western Peninsular Malaysia and southern Thailand but these conditions are expected to return to normal in the second week of the fortnight.

Meanwhile, it is forecast to be wet over eastern Indonesia, including over Sulawesi and Papua where wet conditions are expected to persist throughout the fortnight. Elsewhere in the ASEAN region, normal conditions are expected.

It is forecast to be warmer than normal over most parts of the northern ASEAN region as well as over Sarawak and Sabah.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.