Subseasonal Weather Outlook (12 – 25 October 2026)
Issued: 7 October 2026
First forecast week: 12 – 18 October 2026
Second forecast week: 19 – 25 October 2026
Drier than usual conditions are predicted over most of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (12 – 25 October). Drier than usual conditions are also predicted for much of northern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (12 – 18 October).
Warmer than usual conditions are predicted over most of the ASEAN region in the next fortnight (12 – 25 October).
While an active signal was present over the Western Hemisphere (Phases 8 and 1) in the first week of October based on the RMM index, its westward propagation was not characteristic of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Most models predict no significant MJO activity by the start of the forecast period. During the forecast period (12 – 25 October), some models predict an MJO to emerge over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) in Week 1 (12 – 18 October), while others suggest no significant MJO activity.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.