Subseasonal Weather Outlook (9 – 22 November 2026)
Issued: 4 November 2026
First forecast week: 9 – 15 November 2026
Second forecast week: 16 – 22 November 2026
Drier than usual conditions are predicted over much of the central and southern Maritime Continent and parts of the eastern Maritime Continent during Week 1 (9 – 15 November). Drier than usual conditions are also predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (9 – 22 November).
Warmer than usual conditions are predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and the southern half of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (9 – 22 November).
A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) at the end of October, based on the RMM Index. By the start of the forecast period, a strengthening of the MJO signal over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) is predicted. Most models predict the signal to weaken over the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) or Maritime Continent (Phase 4) during Week 1 (9 – 15 November) and then become inactive during Week 2 (16 – 22 November).
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.