Subseasonal Weather Outlook (11 – 24 July 2022)

Issued: 8 July 2022
First forecast week: 11 July – 17 July
Second forecast week: 18 July – 24 July


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


Wetter conditions are expected over much of the southern and eastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (11 – 24 July). Wetter conditions are also expected over much of the central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (11 – 17 July) and predicted to ease over southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (18 – 24 July).

Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over most of Myanmar in the next fortnight (11 – 24 July).

Since early July, a moderate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was present over the western Maritime Continent (Phase 4). While some models predict this signal to continue propagating through the eastern Maritime Continent (Phase 5) and Western Pacific (Phase 6) by Week 2, others predict the MJO signal to decay.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.