Subseasonal Weather Outlook (3 – 16 May 2021)
Issued 30 April 2021
First forecast week: 3 May – 9 May
Second forecast week: 10 May – 16 May
Wetter conditions are expected over parts of the western and central Maritime Continent in Week 1 (3 – 9 May) and may extend northward to coastal regions of southern Viet Nam. These wetter conditions are expected to ease in Week 2 (10 – 16 May) and be confined mainly to northern Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia.
Drier conditions than usual are expected over much of the southern parts of the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (3 – 16 May).
Cooler temperatures than usual are expected over parts of the western and central Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (3 – 16 May).
A strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 8) at the end of April. Most models forecast the MJO to weaken in May as it propagates eastwards, decaying over the Indian Ocean towards the end of Week 1.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.