Subseasonal Weather Outlook (26 June – 9 July 2023)

Issued: 23 June 2023
First forecast week: 26 June – 2 July 2023
Second forecast week: 3 July – 9 July 2023


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

For rainfall, wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the western and central Maritime Continent and much of the Philippines in Week 1 (26 June – 2 July). Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the southeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (26 June – 2 July).

For temperature, warmer than usual temperature is expected over much of the ASEAN region in the next fortnight (26 June – 9 July), including most of Mainland Southeast Asia, the Malay Peninsula, the Philippines, and the southern and southeastern Maritime Continent.

No clear Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present in the third week of June based on the RMM Index. Most models predict no significant MJO signal during Week 1.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.