Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 30 November 2019)

Issued 15 November 2019
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 November – 30 November


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to persist into the second fortnight of November 2019 and contribute to the drier-than-average weather over areas south of the Equator. Drier-than-average conditions can also be expected in the southern parts of Thailand and Cambodia in the first week of the fortnight.

In contrast, wetter-than-average weather is expected over northern Philippines. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to continue to propagate eastwards from Phase 8, contributing to the wetter-than-average conditions over northern Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia in Week 4.

Warmer-than-average conditions can be expected over many parts of the Mekong sub-region, and over areas around the Java Sea, including southern Sumatra and Kalimantan, and Java.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.