Subseasonal Weather Outlook (20 March – 2 April 2023)

Issued: 17 March 2023
First forecast week: 20 March 2023 – 26 March 2023
Second forecast week: 27 March 2023 – 2 April 2023


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


Drier conditions are expected over much of the northern ASEAN region in Week 1 (20 – 26 March), in particular over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and northern Philippines. These drier conditions are predicted to persist over these regions and extend further southwards to the Malay Peninsula in Week 2 (27 March – 2 April).

Warmer than usual temperature is expected over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and northern Philippines in the next fortnight (20 March – 2 April), in line with the predicted drier conditions.

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) in the middle of March. Models predict this signal to weaken and continue propagating eastwards to the Indian Ocean (Phase 2), and decay by the end of Week 1.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.