Subseasonal Weather Outlook (12 – 25 June 2023)
Issued: 09 June 2023
First forecast week: 12 – 18 June 2023
Second forecast week: 19 – 25 June 2023
Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of northeast Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (12 – 18 June) and over northwest Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (19 – 25 June).
Drier conditions are predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (19 – 25 June).
Warmer than usual temperature is expected over much of the Maritime Continent in Week 1 (12 – 18 June). These warmer conditions are predicted to persist and extend northwards over southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (19 – 25 June).
A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) in the first week of June based on the RMM Index. Most models predict this MJO signal to continue propagating eastward through the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) and decay over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during the forecast period.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.