Subseasonal Weather Outlook (31 May – 13 June 2021)
Issued 28 May 2021
First forecast week: 31 May – 6 June
Second forecast week: 7 June – 13 June
For Mainland Southeast Asia, an increased chance of drier conditions is predicted over much of the region in Week 1 (31 May – 6 June). In Week 2 (7 – 13 June), wetter conditions may develop over the western coastal region.
Elsewhere in the next fortnight (31 May – 13 June), an increased chance of drier conditions is predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region, particularly over the central equatorial region. Wetter conditions than usual are expected over central and southern Philippines in the next fortnight.
Warmer temperatures than usual are expected over much of the ASEAN region in Week 1 (31 May – 6 June), in particular over Mainland Southeast Asia, northern Philippines and parts of the southern Maritime Continent.
Towards the end of May, an MJO signal was present over the Western Pacific (Phase 6). However, this MJO signal is no longer discernible based on the RMM Index and the models are uncertain as to how the MJO will evolve over the forecast period.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.